Control · C97
Detect weak marketing-plan signals
When do several small deteriorations become an alert before the final result declines?
Direct answer
The data tracks direction, persistence and convergence of five leading signals without triggering on an isolated fluctuation.
01Observe, diagnose, correct or reforecast depending on persistence and convergence.
02The rule, the evidence and the next review date stay visible.
How to use this
Move from the question to the deliverable.
When do several small deteriorations become an alert before the final result declines?
Observe, diagnose, correct or reforecast depending on persistence and convergence.
Multivariable weekly series
Dataset · SQ-97
Trigger on convergence, not on an isolated point
A small fall can be noise. Three signals pointing the same way for two periods indicate a drift before the pipeline confirms it.
Fictitious eight-week series after launch, with constant objectives and a comparable channel mix.
- 01Choose
Keep signals linked to a causal mechanism and to a possible action.
- 02Normalise
Compare each measure with its baseline and its usual variability.
- 03Converge
Count the persistent adverse signals without adding redundant metrics.
- 04Escalate
Move from observation to diagnosis, correction and then reforecast under a pre-set rule.
Eight weeks of signals before the pipeline falls
The alert turns amber in W5: reply rate, time to meeting and sales acceptance decline together.
| Week | Engaged accounts | Response | Meeting delay | Sales acceptance | Pipeline | Converging signals | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | 128 | 12.4% | 5.1 d | 68% | €610k | 0 | Stable |
| W2 | 131 | 12.1% | 5.0 d | 69% | €625k | 0 | Stable |
| W3 | 126 | 11.8% | 5.4 d | 66% | €618k | 1 | Observe |
| W4 | 124 | 10.9% | 5.9 d | 64% | €604k | 2 | Observe |
| W5 | 122 | 9.8% | 6.8 d | 59% | €598k | 3 | Diagnose |
| W6 | 119 | 9.4% | 7.2 d | 56% | €552k | 4 | Correct |
| W7 | 117 | 9.1% | 7.6 d | 54% | €506k | 4 | Correct |
| W8 | 116 | 8.9% | 7.8 d | 52% | €451k | 4 | Reforecast |
01The pipeline stays almost stable in W5, while three leading signals have already crossed their convergence rule.
02The action in W5 bears on targeting, handling time and acceptance criteria; raising volume alone would worsen quality.
03The reforecast is triggered only in W8, after the drift persists and materialises in the delayed result.
Fictitious data. The thresholds must be calibrated on historical variability and on breaks in measurement.
Coherence controls
Minimum conditions before validation.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
Usable deliverable
Multivariable weekly series
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