Control · C93
Check risk–initiative coverage
Which initiatives concentrate residual exposure not covered by plan controls?
Direct answer
The calculation combines probability, impact, control effectiveness and initiative centrality to prioritise the disruptions that propagate.
01Strengthen control, fund contingency, decouple or reduce exposure.
02The rule, the evidence and the next review date stay visible.
How to use this
Move from the question to the deliverable.
Which initiatives concentrate residual exposure not covered by plan controls?
Strengthen control, fund contingency, decouple or reduce exposure.
Propagated residual-exposure index
Calculation · SQ-93
Weight residual risk by its propagation through the portfolio
Two risks with the same gross exposure are not equivalent if one affects an isolated initiative and the other affects four critical dependencies.
Fictitious control of five risks linked to eleven initiatives in a launch plan.
- 01Link
Connect every risk to the initiatives, milestones and outcomes actually exposed.
- 02Residualise
Apply documented control effectiveness to gross exposure.
- 03Propagate
Increase exposure according to the number of dependent critical initiatives.
- 04Trade off
Treat propagated exposure first, then verify that the contingency remains fundable.
Propagated residual exposure of €162k
CRM migration overtakes legal risk after propagation because it exposes four critical initiatives.
PRE = probability × impact × (1 − control effectiveness) × [1 + 0.15 × critical initiatives exposed]| Risk | Probability | Impact | Control | Initiatives | Simple residual | PRE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supplier data | 35% | €180k | 40% | 3 | €37.8k | €54.8k |
| Legal claims | 20% | €350k | 65% | 2 | €24.5k | €31.9k |
| CRM migration | 25% | €240k | 50% | 4 | €30.0k | €48.0k |
| Expert absence | 30% | €120k | 75% | 2 | €9.0k | €11.7k |
| Incomplete measurement | 40% | €90k | 70% | 3 | €10.8k | €15.7k |
| Total | — | — | — | — | €112.1k | €162.1k |
01Propagation adds €50k of exposure that the simple register did not reveal.
02Decoupling two initiatives from CRM migration reduces its PRE from €48k to €39k without changing its probability.
03The minimum contingency is based on the PRE of non-transferable risks, not on the sum of maximum impacts.
Illustrative calculation. Probabilities, effectiveness and propagation coefficients must be documented and sensitivity-tested.
Coherence controls
Minimum conditions before validation.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
Usable deliverable
Propagated residual-exposure index
Explore the decision further with an interactive control, or start from a structured template to produce your deliverable.