Framework 12 / 12
Connect sensitive assumptions, triggers and conditional decisions
What would tip the plan over, and which option should then be activated?
Decision
Choose a robust scenario and prepare the conditional decisions.
Compare the effects on results, budget, capacity, timing and risks. This step produces reviewable commitments and flags information that remains too fragile to justify a trade-off.
01Scenarios
02Sensitivities
03Risk register
04Switching rules
Original chart · SQ-43
Calculate expected exposure before choosing a scenario
Risk is compared through probability, impact and response effectiveness. Residual exposure is included in the scenario.
Illustrative dataset of five material risks in an annual plan.
- 01Quantify
Estimate probability and impact using a common convention.
- 02Respond
Describe prevention, contingency, cost and expected effectiveness.
- 03Residualise
Calculate exposure after the response.
- 04Compare
Include response cost and exposure in the scenarios.
Residual exposure of five risks
Product delay remains the leading risk after treatment and conditions the growth scenario.
Residual exposure = probability × impact × (1 − response effectiveness)| Risk | Probability | Impact | Effectiveness | Exposure | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Product delay | 40% | €500k | 35% | €130k | Progressive launch |
| Higher CAC | 35% | €300k | 50% | €52.5k | Reallocation threshold |
| Content capacity | 50% | €160k | 60% | €32k | External reserve |
| Incomplete tracking | 25% | €220k | 70% | €16.5k | Mandatory gate |
| Expert departure | 15% | €180k | 40% | €16.2k | Documentation |
01Total residual exposure reaches €247.2k.
02The Growth scenario requires a specific contingency for product delay.
03A response cost is funded only when it reduces more exposure than the resources it consumes.
Fictitious data. Probabilities and impacts must be reviewed against observable thresholds and events.
Minimum controls
What the plan must make visible.
Status, evidence, owner and next review date.
Status, evidence, owner and next review date.
Status, evidence, owner and next review date.
Status, evidence, owner and next review date.
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