Use case · C88
Stress-test the marketing plan
Does the plan remain fundable and executable if several assumptions deteriorate simultaneously?
Direct answer
The stress test combines declining conversion, rising costs, delayed capacity and a budget freeze to measure buffer, outcome and recovery time.
01Keep the plan, activate a contingency, reduce exposure or switch scenario.
02The rule, the evidence and the next review date stay visible.
How to use this
Move from the question to the deliverable.
Does the plan remain fundable and executable if several assumptions deteriorate simultaneously?
Keep the plan, activate a contingency, reduce exposure or switch scenario.
Quantified combined-stress case
Quantified case · SQ-88
Test four simultaneous shocks instead of one isolated decline
Useful stress tests combine correlated assumptions: lower conversion, more expensive media, delayed capacity and a frozen budget. The plan is judged on survival and recoverability.
Fictitious €1.2m plan targeting €4.8m of pipeline and €1.44m of expected contribution.
- 01Choose shocks
Select severe but plausible disruptions and state their correlations.
- 02Recalculate
Propagate every shock through volumes, costs, workload, schedule and outcome.
- 03Measure survival
Compare contribution, reserve consumed and recovery time.
- 04Pre-authorise
Link every zone to a fundable contingency and a decision-maker.
A combined shock erases 62% of expected contribution
No isolated shock breaks the plan. Their combination crosses the red threshold and requires portfolio recomposition.
Stressed contribution = stressed pipeline × margin − additional costs − delay cost| Scenario | Shock | Pipeline | Contribution | Reserve | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central | Approved assumptions | €4.80m | €1.44m | €0k | Execute |
| Conversion | −20% win rate | €3.84m | €1.15m | €48k | Correct |
| Costs | +18% media and data | €4.80m | €1.22m | €92k | Reallocate |
| Capacity | Bottleneck delayed 6 weeks | €4.22m | €1.12m | €76k | Rephase |
| Combined | 3 shocks + 10% freeze | €3.18m | €0.55m | €175k | Activate contingency |
01The combined scenario reduces contribution from €1.44m to €0.55m and consumes the entire reserve.
02The contingency removes events, protects tracking and rephases non-critical content.
03If conversion remains below 22% for six weeks, the central scenario is abandoned rather than extended.
Fictitious case. A stress test explores resilience; it does not predict the exact probability of shocks.
Coherence controls
Minimum conditions before validation.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
Usable deliverable
Quantified combined-stress case
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