Guide · C45
Run a marketing sensitivity analysis
Which assumptions genuinely move the result of the plan?
Direct answer
Sensitivity varies one assumption at a time around the central scenario and measures result elasticity to focus evidence and protection.
01Strengthen evidence, set a threshold or fund protection for the dominant variables.
02The rule, the evidence and the next review date stay visible.
How to use this
Move from the question to the deliverable.
Which assumptions genuinely move the result of the plan?
Strengthen evidence, set a threshold or fund protection for the dominant variables.
Pipeline sensitivity chart
Original chart · SQ-48
Identify the two assumptions that move €1.6m of pipeline
The analysis varies one assumption at a time around the central scenario to measure its elasticity and decision power.
Illustrative central scenario at €6.0m of pipeline. Each variable is tested at −20% then +20%, all else equal.
- 01Freeze
Fix a central scenario and the calculation relationships used.
- 02Vary
Apply the same relative amplitude to every tested assumption.
- 03Measure
Calculate the outcome gap and elasticity around the central point.
- 04Focus
Strengthen evidence or protection for the variables with the greatest effect.
Pipeline sensitivity to five assumptions
Opportunity conversion and average value explain most of the amplitude. Media cost affects short-term outcome less.
Elasticity = percentage change in pipeline ÷ percentage change in assumption| Assumption | −20% test | +20% test | Amplitude | Elasticity | Treatment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opportunity conversion | −€780k | +€820k | €1,600k | 0.67 | Prove and protect |
| Average value | −€650k | +€700k | €1,350k | 0.56 | Reforecast threshold |
| MQL volume | −€550k | +€480k | €1,030k | 0.43 | Monitor |
| Sales capacity | −€350k | +€400k | €750k | 0.31 | Reinforcement plan |
| Media cost | −€220k | +€180k | €400k | 0.17 | Tolerate |
01Conversion and average value account for 58% of cumulative amplitude.
02The next research should reduce uncertainty on these two variables before refining media cost.
03The downside scenario combines variables only after this one-at-a-time test to avoid double effects.
Fictitious data. A one-at-a-time analysis captures neither correlation nor nonlinear effects between assumptions.
Coherence controls
Minimum conditions before validation.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
Usable deliverable
Pipeline sensitivity chart
Explore the decision further with an interactive control, or start from a structured template to produce your deliverable.