Framework 07 / 12
Sequence initiatives by milestones, prerequisites and capacity
In what realistic order can the portfolio be executed?
Decision
Set the sequence, the milestones, the margins and the decision dates.
Make the critical path visible, along with the decisions that cannot wait. This step produces reviewable commitments and flags information that remains too fragile to justify a trade-off.
01Roadmap
02Dependency map
03Critical path
04Workload alerts
Calculation · SQ-36
Estimate durations with PERT
A single duration hides uncertainty. PERT combines optimistic, likely and pessimistic scenarios to calculate an expected duration.
Calculated case covering five workstreams in launch preparation.
- 01Estimate
Collect three coherent estimates per workstream.
- 02Calculate
Apply the PERT weighted mean.
- 03Sequence
Place expected durations in the dependency network.
- 04Buffer
Add a reserve to high-dispersion workstreams.
Expected duration: 32.5 days versus 29 planned
The initial plan adds likely durations. PERT reveals 3.5 extra days before the network is considered.
PERT duration = (optimistic + 4 × likely + pessimistic) ÷ 6| Workstream | Optimistic | Likely | Pessimistic | PERT | Variance to plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research | 4 d | 6 d | 10 d | 6.3 d | +0.3 d |
| Messages | 3 d | 5 d | 9 d | 5.3 d | +0.3 d |
| Creative | 6 d | 9 d | 16 d | 9.7 d | +0.7 d |
| Legal | 2 d | 4 d | 14 d | 5.3 d | +1.3 d |
| Activation | 3 d | 5 d | 12 d | 5.8 d | +0.8 d |
| Calculated total before rounding | — | 29 d | — | 32.5 d | +3.5 d |
01The exact PERT sum is 32.5 days versus 29 likely days; the table alone cannot calculate a network duration.
02Legal has the greatest dispersion and receives a dedicated buffer.
03The final date must be calculated on the network, not by simply adding workstreams.
Educational example. PERT assumes coherent estimates and does not model every correlation.
Minimum controls
What the plan must make visible.
Status, evidence, owner and next review date.
Status, evidence, owner and next review date.
Status, evidence, owner and next review date.
Status, evidence, owner and next review date.
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