Template · C10
Formalise the plan assumptions
How can uncertainty be made visible and reviewable?
Direct answer
Every assumption needs a value, confidence level, impact, owner, review date and trigger threshold.
01Choose which assumptions should become conditional decisions.
02The rule, the evidence and the next review date stay visible.
How to use this
Move from the question to the deliverable.
How can uncertainty be made visible and reviewable?
Choose which assumptions should become conditional decisions.
Assumption register
Worked example · SQ-18
Test two assumptions before committing €600k
An assumption becomes steerable when a quantified variation changes a decision, a threshold or a scenario.
Illustrative simulation crossing acquisition cost and conversion rate for a target of 120 contracts.
- 01State
Write a central value, a range and a source.
- 02Cross
Test jointly the assumptions that reinforce each other.
- 03Set thresholds
Identify the combinations that make the plan unviable.
- 04Trigger
Attach each threshold to a decision and a verification date.
Sensitivity of CAC × conversion rate
The media budget available is €600k. The cells show the budget needed to obtain 120 contracts.
Required budget = target contracts ÷ conversion rate × acquisition cost| CAC / Conversion | 20% | 25% | 30% | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| €800 | €480k | €384k | €320k | Robust |
| €1,000 | €600k | €480k | €400k | Threshold at 20% |
| €1,250 | €750k | €600k | €500k | Conditional |
| €1,500 | €900k | €720k | €600k | Not viable unless 30% |
01The central scenario at €1,250 and 25% consumes the envelope exactly.
02If the CAC exceeds €1,250, the conversion rate must reach 30% or the target must be reduced.
03The first verification date must fall before the irreversible commitment of the second half of the budget.
Fictitious and simplified simulation. It includes neither the conversion delay nor internal costs.
Coherence controls
Minimum conditions before validation.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
Usable deliverable
Assumption register
Explore the decision further with an interactive control, or start from a structured template to produce your deliverable.