Control · C67
Trade off value, effort and uncertainty
How do you stop a high declared value from artificially offsetting weak evidence?
Direct answer
The grid separates potential, confidence, cost of error, reversibility and capacity bottleneck before allowing funding, testing or stopping.
01Fund, test, reconfigure or reject each initiative.
02The rule, the evidence and the next review date stay visible.
How to use this
Move from the question to the deliverable.
How do you stop a high declared value from artificially offsetting weak evidence?
Fund, test, reconfigure or reject each initiative.
Value–effort–uncertainty grid
Decision grid · SQ-67
Stop an ambitious value from hiding weak evidence
The grid separates potential value from confidence, then adds cost of error, reversibility and scarce skill. The score cannot offset an eliminating criterion.
Fictitious decision on five competing initiatives for €300k and 220 net days available.
- 01Separate
Score value and confidence in two different columns.
- 02Filter
Apply the eliminating criteria before any weighted sum.
- 03Qualify the option
Measure reversibility, learning time and maximum loss.
- 04Make the decision
Fund, test, reconfigure or reject, with an explicit condition.
Five initiatives, four different decisions
Adjusted value multiplies potential by confidence. An unresolved bottleneck or an irreversible loss above €120k prevents full funding.
Adjusted value = potential value × confidence; index = adjusted value ÷ full cost| Initiative | Value | Confidence | Index | Elimination criterion | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-account ABM | €520k | 70% | 3.31 | None | Fund |
| Owned event | €410k | 35% | 1.02 | Maximum loss €150k | Test at €30k |
| Onboarding redesign | €360k | 80% | 4.11 | Ops unavailable | Rephase |
| Industry sponsorship | €280k | 25% | 0.58 | Insufficient measurement | Reject |
| Partner programme | €330k | 55% | 2.27 | Sales dependency | Joint pilot |
01The redesign has the best index but cannot be funded before the marketing ops bottleneck is resolved.
02The event is not rejected: a capped test reduces the maximum loss and raises the learning value.
03Sponsorship is rejected because a declared value of €280k rests on 25% confidence without sufficient measurement.
Fictitious case. Expected values are planning estimates and must be presented as ranges.
Coherence controls
Minimum conditions before validation.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
The status, the evidence and the owner must be available for review.
Usable deliverable
Value–effort–uncertainty grid
Explore the decision further with an interactive control, or start from a structured template to produce your deliverable.